Why Australia, not India, will Win the Cricket World Cup 2019

1.35 billion slept happily last Sunday as India beat Australia in the Cricket World Cup. Every punk around me is dead certain that India is the favorite to win the World Cup. It’s a reasonable claim, but it’s based more on Indian team’s dazzling paper strength, very recent results [wins against SA & Oz], natural bias towards one’s country of birth & most importantly ‘genetic/cultural stupidity’. 

Unlike South Africa, who’ve lost three matches on the trot, England & Australia’s one loss in three matches doesn’t change the equation much. England and Australia remain the favorites to lift the coveted Trophy on Sunday, 14 July 2019. 

After doing dynamic calculations by considering a range of factors, I’ve picked my favorites:

3. India 

2. England 

1. Australia

Reason One: Recent Form [Matches in 2019]

India: 10 wins - 5 losses

England:  9 wins - 3 losses - 2 no result

Australia: 11 wins - 5 losses

With the above statistic, Australia comes out on top as 4 out of 5 losses came in the earlier part of the year. And before India beat Oz on Sunday, they were on a hot streak of 10 wins on the trot.

Reason Two: Overall World Cup Record + Win-Loss in the past five editions and World Cup Finals Record [since 1999]

Overall World Cup Record

India: Two-time champions [1983 & 2011]

England:  Never ever champions

Australia: Five-time champions [1987, 1999, 2003, 2007, 2015]

Australia is a run-away winner in this category.

Win-Loss at the World Cups since 1999

India:  30 wins - 10 losses

England:  18 wins - 16 losses

Australia: 47 wins - 6 losses

Australia is ahead by a ridiculous margin

World Cup Finals Records [since 1999]

India: 

1 win [beat Lanka [2011]] 

1 loss [against Australia in 2003]

England:  

Never entered the finals [P.S. England did lose three finals prior to 1999 [lost to Windies [’79], Oz [’87], & Pakistan [’92]]

Australia: 

4 wins [Pakistan [’99], India [2003, Lanka [2007] & NZ [2015]]

Zero losses

Australia is killing India & England when it comes to getting into & winning the Finals

Reason Three: How these countries have fared against each other in World Cups

India: 4 wins - 8 losses [against Oz] + 3 wins - 3 losses [against England]

England:  3 wins - 3 losses [against India] + 2 wins - 5 losses [against Oz]

Australia: 8 wins - 4 losses [against India] + 5 wins - 2 losses [against England]

Again, Oz has the edge here.

Reason Four: On Performances When it Matters the Most

India, traditionally, hasn’t been the team with ‘killer instinct’ - the same holds true for England. Australia, traditionally, has been the team that will destroy any team on any given day. This has, certainly, changed over the last 5-7 years. Australia is no longer ‘intimidating or invincible’ and though statistics that I’ve presented above overwhelmingly favor the Aussies, the glorious past doesn’t guarantee future success at all. 

1. England has lost three WC finals - so technically they don’t come across as the team that can ‘hold nerves’ but that’s half the story. England never had the spectacular team they have now & they’ve home advantage. 

2. India, with Kohli’s captaincy, have been a bit up-&-down. Kohli is often [justifiably] regarded as the greatest batsmen in the world, but is often [justifiably] criticized for his captaincy. But India has begun the World Cup with a bang & that will take care of the nerves and captaincy apprehensions [also Dhoni & Rohit are there to help out]. And like England, this Indian team is the strongest while performing in big matches. This team is a cut above even the World Cup winning teams of 1983 & 2011.

3. Australia, unlike England & India, is not the greatest team in their history. That is quite understandable as Australia is a five-time World Cup champion. In fact, Aussies have had the worst 15 months in their history. The blown-out-of-proportion sandpaper-gate [ball tampering] saga left them without two superstars - Warner & Smith - for a year & dis-integrated the entire team. But, in this moment, the team looks solid & has been winning without a break till Sunday’s blip against India. 

Now, if India, Australia, & England are almost identical when it comes to ‘performing under pressure’ then how to decide which team is more likely to lift the Trophy. 

That’s where Reason Five: ‘Peaking & Hunger’ comes into play. 

It is understandable that India, Australia, & England will lose 1 to 3 matches out of the 9 in the group stage. This will not make much of a change to their fortunes as all three [India, Australia, & England] will qualify for the Semi-Finals. That’s why England’s loss to Pakistan & Australia’s loss to India will not be relevant to the bigger picture. 

When it comes to peaking, Australia is definitely peaking at the right time. England has been consistently great over the past 3 years. India is peaking now - but given the format of the tournament, it will matter the most to peak in the two big games [Semi-final & Final]

Australia has an edge here as their team has improved in leaps & bounds over the past 2 months. Aussies surely have got their edge back. Again, we can’t be certain if Aussies are going to peak at the right time - indications are that they will but it can’t be said that Aussies ‘definitely’ are more likely to peak at the right time than England & India. 

I reckon it all boils down to Hunger - who wants it more. And here Australia have an out-&-out edge. 

Yes, Indians love cricket & there are 1.35 billion people dying to see India become world champions again. But, that’s not a new thing, 1.35 billion are always dying to see India become world champions. And just because someone wants something all the time, it doesn’t mean they’ll win it all the time. [India has won 2 out of 11 editions]

This is England’s best chance to win the world cup - it’s their best team ever and they are at home. And they’re hungry but are they as hungry as the Aussies?
Fact: No player from the current Team England has been in a World Cup final.

If you, the reader, are emotionally alive & have seen Steven Smith’s [see it on YouTube if you haven’t] press conference where he broke down, you know what he went through. And Warner’s wife had a goddamn mis-carriage. A proud & cocky Australian team was criticized by everymothafucker that ever lived. And even now world-class champions Smith & Warner are booed with chants of “Cheaters, Cheaters” by the crowd.
P.S. Respect to Kohli for putting his foot down on the booing nonsense. 

And if there’s one country that knows how to rise when the chips are down, it’s Australia. They’ve everything to prove to the Cricket World. This is the biggest platform in Cricket and they are bound to rise from the ashes. 

I don’t know & there’s no way to know if Australia will definitely win because they’re more hungry than India & England, but all I’m saying is - if Australia reaches the Grand Final, they’re going to go on the pitch with heart, soul, wildfire & they’re going to throw the bloody kitchen sink at England or India. And it will take one hell of a team to beat this Australian team that is more hungry than Will Smith was in ‘The Pursuit of Happiness’ - than a cheetah who hasn’t eaten in 99 days. 

So yeah, if England or India is going to beat Australia in this Game of Thrones, they better get ready to go in for an ugly & bloody World War III. Because that’s what it’ll take to stop this Australian side that is bleeding & they’ll come at you harder than any mothafucking team ever has.